Tariff conflicts and monetary policy decisions shape the 2025 stock market
After a positive start to the year, the upward trend in the international stock markets initially continued. At the beginning of April, the announcement of high US import tariffs led to significant losses; however, a moratorium announced shortly thereafter, along with the prospect of negotiations between the major economic powers, led to a rapid recovery. In the summer, some indices even reached new record highs. In the second half of the year, monetary policy signals and geopolitical risks dominated market activity. Speculation about interest rate adjustments in the USA and Europe increased volatility. The US Federal Reserve initiated a cautious tightening in September, which initially led to declines in the stock markets before the markets resumed positive development toward the end of the year. Additional pressure caused by tensions in Asia and uncertainties in supply chains did nothing to change the overall positive sentiment: supported by solid corporate profits, robust demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts, many indices closed the year with double-digit percentage gains.
The DAX, Germany’s leading index, exceeded the 24,000-point mark for the first time in May 2025 and peaked at 24,771 points in the first half of October. The DAX closed the year at 24,490 points, an increase of 23% compared to the end of 2024. The MDAX rose by almost 20% compared to the end of 2024 and ended the year at just under 30,618 points after peaking at the end of July. The SDAX, which includes NORMA Group shares, performed particularly strongly, closing the year at 17,175 points – a full 25% above the previous year’s level. The German indices benefited not only from the easing of the tariff conflict, but also from the German government’s announced investments in infrastructure and defense.
The European markets developed at a similar pace to the German benchmark indices: the STOXX Europe 600 Industrial Goods & Services rose by almost 24% over the course of the year to 2,207 points on December 30, 2025. Gains in the US markets were similar, with the Dow Jones Industrial closing the year at 48,063 points – an increase of around 13%. The S&P 500 reached 6,846 points at the end of 2025, which corresponds to growth of around 16%. In the USA, stubborn inflation, a lack of interest rate cuts, and political uncertainty all slowed momentum.
The MSCI World Automobiles Index, which is considered a trend indicator for the global automotive market, only gained momentum from autumn 2025 and closed the year at 441 points – around 11% above year-end 2024. The main negative factors were weak demand in key sales markets, ongoing supply chain problems, and rising financing costs as a result of higher interest rates.
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These contents are part of the Non-financial Group Report and were subject to a separate limited assurance examination.